It's fun to pretend to predict future events and environments, if only so we can laugh when the predictions turn out to be wrong and much more quaint than the real thing. So, here are my predictions. I don't want to be overly optimistic and put the predictions too near "our time", so let's say they are targeted for about 20 years from now (beginning of 2008.) though some of them may be realized even 10 years from now. Here's the list:
- Microsoft will sell cars, or car parts, or fridges. Something "classical".
- Dell is the new Apple.
- Google is the new Microsoft. Some FutureTech Company is threatening the long and obnoxious rule of Google.
- The concept of paying for bandwidth instead of content is relegated to the history books and looks like something from third-world nations in Africa.
- Computers without always-online Internet connectivity will be almost useless to the "common man", though there will always be a core of a culture of "old-fashioned" users that want total control over their data (probably evolving from the today's OpenBSD and Crypto nut communities). The "old-fashioned" applications that deal only with local data will stagnate, simply because there's nothing new to invent there (the last real inventions in desktop apps happened in Xerox some decades ago: the mouse and WYSIWYG editors).
- A small percentage of "global warming" and other "sky is falling" theories happen. We'll probably lose Venice, but people will continue to live their lives without major interruptions. Possible future "sky is falling" theories include meteor hits and WW3.
- USA and Russia are constantly attempting to start another Cold War but nobody cares.